TMF vs TLT: which was the better investment?
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares against iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF on real daily total-return data — every dividend reinvested, from Apr 16, 2009 to Jul 15, 2026.
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Frequently asked questions
Did TMF beat TLT?
No — measured from Apr 16, 2009 to Jul 15, 2026 with dividends reinvested, TLT came out ahead: $13,634 versus $3,349 from a $10,000 start. That gap compounds from a 1.8% annual return against -6.1%.
What would $10,000 in TMF be worth today?
$10,000 invested in Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TMF) on Apr 16, 2009 would be worth about $3,349 as of Jul 15, 2026, a total return of -66.5% (-6.1% per year). The same $10,000 in TLT would be worth $13,634.
Which was riskier — TMF or TLT?
TMF swung with an annualized volatility of 44.9% and a worst peak-to-trough drop of -92.7%; TLT ran at 15.0% volatility with a -48.4% maximum drawdown. Risk-adjusted (Sharpe ratio), that is -0.18 for TMF vs -0.01 for TLT.
What data is this comparison based on?
Daily adjusted closing prices covering Apr 16, 2009 through Jul 15, 2026 — the full period where both assets have price history. Adjusted prices include dividends and splits, so these are total returns. The page refreshes with new market data every day.
Can I change the dates, amounts, or add monthly investing?
Yes — the interactive tool on this page is pre-loaded with TMF vs TLT. You can set any start and end date, change the starting amount, add monthly contributions, or build a multi-asset portfolio and compare it against any benchmark.